Current Regime: Late-Cycle Tightening → shifting toward Stagflation Risk (72% confidence)
Top active themes:
• US Inflation Resurgence (momentum: 87, rising fast) — CPI beat expectations for the 3rd consecutive month. 10Y yields at 4.82%.
• Fed Rate Trajectory Shift (momentum: 81) — Markets pricing fewer than 1 cut for full year 2026.
• China Property Stress (momentum: 78) — Fresh developer defaults weighing on commodity demand.
Active high-severity alerts: US inflation risk (confidence: 91%), China property stress (confidence: 84%)
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