Closest Historical Match
2022 US Inflation Surge & Fed Tightening Cycle
88% similarity·2022·inflation, rate-hikes
Historical Episodes — sorted by similarity to today
2022 US Inflation Surge & Fed Tightening Cycle
2022-03-01•US, GB, DE, BR, TR
88%
similarity to today
US CPI reached 9.1% YoY in June 2022 — the highest in 40 years. The Fed embarked on its most aggressive tightening cycle since the 1980s, raising rates by 525bps between March 2022 and July 2023.
Key Indicators at Time
US CPI (Peak)
9.1% YoY (June 2022)
Fed Funds Rate (Start)
0.25%
Fed Funds Rate (End)
5.50%
10Y UST Yield
4.25% (Oct 2022 peak)
DXY Peak
114.8
What Happened Next
→
Fed raised rates 11 times, from 0.25% to 5.50%
→
S&P 500 fell 19.4% in 2022 — worst year since 2008
→
Nasdaq fell over 33% as growth stocks repriced sharply
→
USD strengthened 15% — DXY peaked at 114 in September 2022
→
EM currencies broadly declined — TRY hit record lows, GBP near parity fears
→
Inflation peaked in June 2022 and began gradual decline
→
UK saw gilt market crisis in September 2022 (LDI blow-up)
Asset Impacts
US Equities (S&P 500)
↓ large
US Treasuries
↓ large
USD (DXY)
↑ large
Gold
↕ small
EM Bonds
↓ large